Hard Mode: Jewelry loot crate review and proposed modifications
-
Greetings!
I've been enjoying the Hard Modes very much so, its opened a path to theory crafting new build ideas and ways to handle the various challenges and has made for some awesome fun times, hilarious shenanigans and a great deal of community engagement.
Here's the elephant in the room. Jewelry loot crates drop rate % (assuming 1.8% drop chance based off an estimation of 20~ HM completions and 3x crates existing thus far) and average time to completion of a single set based off of 18 total mobs (bosses/experiments etc.) capable of rolling the drop meaning full clear all 3 Hard Modes every day with an estimated 2% drop chance as well as a 1 in 36 chance per crate to get a item for your desired "set". I put this information into a robot and here are the statistics, please keep in mind that this doesn't include people sharing/selling their crates/loot. just raw drops and acquisition comparison. Calculations based on completing a desired 3pc set.
Current model: RNG only — all bosses roll at drop rate full clear
Avg crates/sweep - 0.360
Your crates/sweep - 0.0450
Avg sweeps (personal) - 1467
Median weeks - 183.7 weeks (3.5 years)If the final boss was guaranteed to drop 1 crate:
Guaranteed drop model: Final boss of each HM always drops 1 crate Full Clear all 3, every day, say 3 hours for all 3 or 21 hours a week
Avg crates/sweep - 3.360
Your crates/sweep - 0.4200
Avg sweeps (personal) - 157
Median weeks - 19.4 weeks (4.3 Months)From a general player perspective, even with adding a guaranteed drop to the final boss, the grind would still be rather insane, being more realistic and saying ~9 hours a week or 3x complete runs a week with a guaranteed drop from end boss equates to 45 weeks (10 months on average, doesn't include those of us with shit luck) for 3pc set completion.
I understand this is a touchy subject as loot is involved, rather powerful loot i might add and all other loot IMO should remain at its current value (maybe junk loot gets a little increase), the below update suggestions would pertain only to jewelry crates:
-
Move to Guaranteed Drop from each end boss
-
brings the grind down from years to months
-
Add a HM Token drop to last boss for all players 1x token per instance clear
-
gives incentive to running them if bad luck strikes you down
-
Add HM vendor to purchase crate.
-
Crate RNG still applies, economy will continue to grow as participation continues since there is no guaranteed "buy the one you want"
-
Crate costs 4 tokens
-
At 4 tokens per crate to purchase, assuming 3x full clears each week or 9 tokens a week plus above mentioned changes moves the average time to completion for a single set to 11 weeks. still nearly 3 months, but I'm trying to adjusting this to account for the economy as well as we have 8 characters and my assumption is most people may like to get more than 1 set or the same set for multiple toons.
Love you all, and thank you for the amazing content to enjoy
Historical reactions: Like × 3
-
-
BilbroSwaginz, post: 4627, member: 2872 wrote:
Greetings!
I've been enjoying the Hard Modes very much so, its opened a path to theory crafting new build ideas and ways to handle the various challenges and has made for some awesome fun times, hilarious shenanigans and a great deal of community engagement.
Here's the elephant in the room. Jewelry loot crates drop rate % (assuming 1.8% drop chance based off an estimation of 20~ HM completions and 3x crates existing thus far) and average time to completion of a single set based off of 18 total mobs (bosses/experiments etc.) capable of rolling the drop meaning full clear all 3 Hard Modes every day with an estimated 2% drop chance as well as a 1 in 36 chance per crate to get a item for your desired "set". I put this information into a robot and here are the statistics, please keep in mind that this doesn't include people sharing/selling their crates/loot. just raw drops and acquisition comparison. Calculations based on completing a desired 3pc set.
Current model: RNG only — all bosses roll at drop rate full clear
Avg crates/sweep - 0.360
Your crates/sweep - 0.0450
Avg sweeps (personal) - 1467
Median weeks - 183.7 weeks (3.5 years)If the final boss was guaranteed to drop 1 crate:
Guaranteed drop model: Final boss of each HM always drops 1 crate Full Clear all 3, every day, say 3 hours for all 3 or 21 hours a week
Avg crates/sweep - 3.360
Your crates/sweep - 0.4200
Avg sweeps (personal) - 157
Median weeks - 19.4 weeks (4.3 Months)From a general player perspective, even with adding a guaranteed drop to the final boss, the grind would still be rather insane, being more realistic and saying ~9 hours a week or 3x complete runs a week with a guaranteed drop from end boss equates to 45 weeks (10 months on average, doesn't include those of us with shit luck) for 3pc set completion.
I understand this is a touchy subject as loot is involved, rather powerful loot i might add and all other loot IMO should remain at its current value (maybe junk loot gets a little increase), the below update suggestions would pertain only to jewelry crates:
- Move to Guaranteed Drop from each end boss
- brings the grind down from years to months
- Add a HM Token drop to last boss for all players 1x token per instance clear
- gives incentive to running them if bad luck strikes you down
- Add HM vendor to purchase crate.
- Crate RNG still applies, economy will continue to grow as participation continues since there is no guaranteed "buy the one you want"
- Crate costs 4 tokens
- At 4 tokens per crate to purchase, assuming 3x full clears each week or 9 tokens a week plus above mentioned changes moves the average time to completion for a single set to 11 weeks. still nearly 3 months, but I'm trying to adjusting this to account for the economy as well as we have 8 characters and my assumption is most people may like to get more than 1 set or the same set for multiple toons.
Love you all, and thank you for the amazing content to enjoy
i too agree we need to do something about drop chances, i like these ideas personally
Historical reactions: Like × 2
-
I personally like it myself what you proposed here. Seems like a pretty fair and practical way to get the new "hotness" items but not making the content something we just finish in a month or two. Granted I have no idea what the % rates are for loot, but it does feel abit low to me as well. Now Ive only ran like 6-7 of the new Hardmodes so my sample size is too small for sure! Think total I've looted 5 various overload bits and one of the new armor slicing bits, so atleast im getting something
Historical reactions: Like × 1
-
I think 4 tokens is a bit on the cheap side. every 3 week. you should work great. You need to have time space out to work for it. and run the them as well. I still think that we hardly run them still. for the loot the came it. its good. But have something some can work a bit to is not a bad idea. But it should be a have a chance to get jewelry or some other items from the HM.
-
Thanks for your statistical breakdown. I have dealt with lower drop rates then this in other games and enjoy the grind .03% and .01% to be more precise but those odds involve a set timer of a boss multiple times per day and first come first serve. I give a thumbs up for review of the topic.
Historical reactions: Like × 1
-
Tdeadly, post: 4631, member: 364 wrote:
I think 4 tokens is a bit on the cheap side. every 3 week. you should work great. You need to have time space out to work for it. and run the them as well. I still think that we hardly run them still. for the loot the came it. its good. But have something some can work a bit to is not a bad idea. But it should be a have a chance to get jewelry or some other items from the HM.
That’s why I used the math to average out jewelry acquisition. It’s based on math the direct impact cost has to acquisition. We don’t have to think about if the cost is too high or too low, we know the overall expected correlation
Average crates required to complete a 3 piece set is 66, but with the deviation there will be people needing 150+ and some needing less
-
bumping for visibility
-
Thanks for taking the time to put this together and for the thoughtful analysis.
It’s important to remember that Hard Modes, the jewelry system, and many of the supporting Chapter 7 systems are still very new. We don’t yet have the complete chapter roadmap released, and there are additional systems and content planned that could significantly impact acquisition rates, progression, and overall balance.
For now, we’d like to let the data continue to develop and see how these items circulate through the economy and player base over time. Rather than making adjustments based on early observations, we’ll table this discussion for the moment and revisit it once more of the Chapter 7 content and systems have been released and we’ve had time to evaluate the full picture.
We appreciate the feedback and will definitely keep it in mind as we continue monitoring the system.
Orton
Evolve Community Manager
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login